Potential Megapolitan Powerhouse
They are headed our way – millions of newcomers looking for a fresh start in Arizona.
Serving as a pipeline for that growth is the Arizona Sun Corridor, a “megapolitan” area that spans from the Mexican border at Nogales through Yavapai County. By 2030, the population in that stretch of Arizona is expected to grow by more than 2 million residents.
“The world is changing so rapidly that the notion of independent cities thinking they can be competitive on a global scale is outmoded,” said Michael Crow, president of Arizona State University.
“It’s not Phoenix and it’s not Tucson. The question is what is the region capable of on a global scale?”
Crow spoke to a capacity audience of 600 this fall at the 2011 TREO Annual Luncheon at the Hilton Tucson El Conquistador Golf & Tennis Resort. He delved into the evolution of the megapolitan – the new urban unit of focus.
“Megapolitan is the new word that replaces
the concept of ‘metropolitan’ and Arizona is positioned to be highly successful,” Crow said.
Population and economic trends show the emergence of 10 to 12 megapolitans in the U.S., dubbed Megapolitan Nation. Among them is the Arizona Sun Corridor, with its projected 7.8 million inhabitants by 2030.
Arizona in many ways benefits from being somewhat of a blank slate – we can create the type of megapolitan we wish to be, Crow said.
But are we ready for that growth?
Crow said issues of poverty, under-funded education, and low per-capita income could derail the state’s success.
“Are we going to be the megapolitan that never got organized and never got connected and let the other ones beat us?” he asked.
Key to success is building higher-wage jobs and a skilled, educated, and innovative workforce.
Crow said per-capita income in Arizona “is like a sinking ship. There is too much reliance on non-productive industry. Office, sales, and food prep does not make for a competitive megapolitan.”
But the Sun Corridor’s proximity to Southern California and Mexico is a tremendous asset, he said.
“The economy of Arizona is the size of Thailand,” Crow said. “Right below us is this place called Mexico. Mexico’s economy rivals Russia. Next door to us is Italy, or California. Somehow we have to leverage where we are.”
Crow gave a national and local view of megapolitans.
Megapolitans are highly concentrated, already producing 70 percent of the gross domestic product while taking up 14.5 percent of the nation’s land area. Megapolitans are expected to add 62 million residents from 2000 to 2030.
About 30 million people are predicted to inhabit the Dallas/Fort Worth megapolitan, dwarfing the Sun Corridor. Yet our influx will likely be dramatic as well.
“Those people are coming,” Crow said. “A lot of people come to this region to escape other places. It will be a young, diverse population. And these people are coming even if there aren’t high-wage jobs.”
Innovation is critical, he said. “Everyone is going to need three or four careers, not one career,” Crow said. “We must be perpetually innovating. If you are not innovating you are going to die.”
Robert Lang is credited with coining the phrase “megapolitan.” He is professor of sociology at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Lang’s most recent book, “Megapolitan America: A New Vision for Understanding America’s Metropolitan Geography,” offers insight into what the future holds for megapolitans.
He predicts that 9.1 million people will inhabit the Sun Corridor by 2040. Lang was drawn to the concept of
megapolitans by studying 2000 Census data.
“The 2000 Census looked at combined statistics of nearby metropolitan areas,” Lang said in a telephone interview.
He studied the combined economies, strengths, and weaknesses. “I tried to see if you continue in this trend, what will be the geography of the next generation?”
In the Sun Corridor, the rapid growth of Pinal County is crucial, Lang said.
“The northern part of Pinal County becomes part of Phoenix and the southern part aligns with Tucson,” he said. “Because of that overlap, there is enough there to unify Phoenix and Tucson into a combined statistical area.
“The area will benefit from a bigger community,” Lang added. “Combine the science of, say, optics with the business strengths of Phoenix and you potentially have a huge global industry.”
Lang said Tucson is a hotbed of new technology bolstered by a world-class research university, while Phoenix is an important logistical and economic center.
He said many in Phoenix and Tucson remain territorial. Tucson sees Phoenix as an “L.A. wannabe,” and Phoenix sees Tucson as a “cow town that never got its act together.”
“You gotta get over yourselves,” he said. “You have to think in terms of a global market, a global economy. Anything that Tucson does to outreach to Phoenix is beneficial. There is no value in dividing the assets.”
That said, the Sun Corridor is better at give-and-take than many of the Eastern megapolitans, such as Pittsburgh and Cleveland, “which are not even on the same page,” according to Lang.
Tucson and Phoenix can join forces without losing their identities. “Bury the hatchet, work together, think big and think global,” Lang said.
TREO is embracing the megapolitan concept as the future for the state. The organization continues to partner with Phoenix, Yuma, and Flagstaff in the “Arizona Sun Corridor: Open for Business” marketing campaign. The goal is to bring high-wage jobs and investment to the Sun Corridor. In addition, the Sun Corridor economic development organizations often market the region to California businesses looking to relocate.
“The great recession has caused a seismic shift in our economy and how we compete,” said Joe Snell, TREO president and CEO. “Going forward we must accept the new landscape. It’s very important that we think regionally. That is exactly what we’ve done at TREO in the last 18 months. We have been partnering to sell one market.”
Snell said it’s fine for the state to compete on the football field and basketball court. But competition doesn’t work in the effort to grow the state’s economy.
“We’ve got to improve our product here,” Snell said. “We’ve got to invest in our infrastructure, roads, and airports. Our ability to move people is critical to our survival.”
Education — from kindergarten through college — must be supported as well.
“Tucson has made progress in competing in the biosciences, solar and aerospace industries. We need to leverage that and build on that,” he said. “We have a ton of work ahead of us and we have to proceed with tenacity and great focus.”